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07/12/2010 - St. Andrews, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tiger Woods and Justin Rose, the world's top-ranked player and one of the hottest players in golf, respectively, will be paired together for the first two rounds of the 2010 British Open.
The 150th Anniversary Open will tee off from historic St. Andrews on Thursday.
Woods has won the last two Open Championships staged at St. Andrews, but has struggled for most of the 2010 season on the heels of his off-the-course issues that first surfaced last November. His two best finishes in just six starts this year came in the first two major championships -- tying for fourth at both the Masters and U.S. Open.
Rose, meanwhile, won Woods' tournament two weeks ago, the AT&T National in suburban Philadelphia, and also captured the Memorial Tournament last month with a tie for ninth in between at the Travelers Championship.
Joining Woods and Rose for the first two rounds will be Camilo Villegas. The trio will tee off at 9:09 a.m. local time (4:09 a.m. et) on Thursday and 2:20 p.m. local time (9:20 a.m. et) on Friday.
The first group of the tournament, starting at 6:30 a.m. local time (1:30 a.m. et) on Thursday, features 1999 Open champion Paul Lawrie, who came back from 10 shots on the final day to win at Carnoustie, as well as Thomas Levet and Steve Marino.
Defending Open champion Stewart Cink, who beat Tom Watson in a playoff last year at Turnberry, is paired with 2002 Open winner Ernie Els and Ian Poulter. They are scheduled to start at 8:42 a.m. local time (3:42 a.m. et) on Thursday and will play at 1:53 p.m. local time (8:53 a.m. et) Friday.
Watson, the five-time winner of the Claret Jug, is back again and will play the first two rounds with 2007 and 2008 Open winner Padraig Harrington and Japanese teenager Ryo Ishikawa. The group will tee off Thursday directly after Woods' group at 9:20 a.m. local time (4:20 a.m. et).
Reigning Masters champion Phil Mickelson will try for his first British Open title and will play his opening two rounds with two-time U.S. Open winner Retief Goosen and European Ryder Cup captain Colin Montgomerie. They have a 2:20 p.m. local time (9:20 a.m. et) start on Thursday.
Graeme McDowell, who captured the U.S. Open title last month, will play with fellow U.S. Open champs Jim Furyk and Geoff Ogilvy, starting at 1:53 p.m. local time (8:53 a.m. et).
Steve Stricker, coming off his win at the John Deere Classic this past weekend, is paired with Sergio Garcia and Hiroyuki Fujita. They'll start at 2:09 p.m. local time (9:09 a.m. et) on Thursday.
<< Ferreira equalizer forces Seattle to share points with Dallas
Seattle, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - FC Dallas got a late goal from Colombian
midfielder David Ferreira to earn a 1-1 draw vs. the Seattle Sounders FC in
Major League Soccer action in front of over 36,000 fans at Qwest Field on
Sunday
<< Cuban: NBA should examine how Heat got Big 3
LAS VEGAS (AP) -Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban says the NBA should examine how free agents LeBron James, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade all ended up with the Miami Heat.Cuban tells a group of reporters at the NBA's summer league in Las Vegas that he
<< Padilla, Dodgers shut down Cubs
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Vicente Padilla pitched eight innings of
shutout ball, and the Los Angeles Dodgers routed the Chicago Cubs, 7-0, in the
finale of a four-game set from Dodger Stadium.
Padilla (4-2) allowed just two hi
<< Nets add G Farmar
East Rutherford, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New Jersey Nets have agreed in
principle to a contract with free agent guard Jordan Farmar.
Per team policy, terms of the agreement were not released, but the Newark
Star-Ledger reports t
NL Rookie Pitcher Gets All-Star Snub >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For those of you still wrapped up in Strasburg-
mania, I have to regretfully inform you that he's not the pitcher referred to
in the above headline. As impressive as the Nationals' rookie has been, and as
much as
Pacers reach agreement with Indianapolis >>
Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Indiana Pacers and the city of
Indianapolis have reportedly reached an agreement that will keep the team in
Conseco Fieldhouse for at least three more seasons.
According to the Indianapolis
139th British Open Championship Preview >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Golf's most historic championship heads to
its most historic venue for the 139th playing of the British Open
Championship.
The championship is celebrating its 150th anniversary -- it was no
American League mid-term grades >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There have been plenty of storylines to
keep us busy during the first half of the American League schedule, and a
number of surprising ones at that.
From the travels of Cliff Lee to the exploits of Robinso
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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