This Week in Golf - July 12th through July 18th

Golf Betting Lines

07/12/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - BRITISH OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP, The Old Course at St. Andrews, St. Andrews, Scotland - The season's third major championship is on deck and it's being contested at the home of golf, The Old Course at St. Andrews.

All of the greats have won there, like Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods. In fact, the younger of those two stars has hoisted the claret jug the last two times St. Andrews hosted the Open Championship in 2000 and 2005.

Woods' game is in tatters at the moment. (Tatters for him anyway.) Phil Mickelson, the Masters champion, can overtake Woods for the No. 1 spot in the world rankings, but Mickelson's British Open record is spotty at best.

Last year, the world missed out on probably the greatest golf story in history. Tom Watson, then 59, held the lead on the 18th hole Sunday in his quest for a sixth Open title. He bogeyed the hole, appeared to run out of gas and lost a playoff to Stewart Cink.

The year before that, it was 50-year-old Greg Norman who had the lead on Sunday. Unfortunately, the two-time British Open winner didn't have it down the stretch and Padraig Harrington blew by him.

Several Europeans not named Harrington come into this week with some momentum. Ten of the top-20 ranked players in the world come from Europe, including Harrington.

He's the one of two European major winners of the group. Will it be a Westwood or a Poulter or a Rose or a McIlroy to break through? Rose has two wins in a little over a month, so he makes sense.

U.S. Open champion Graeme McDowell had a decent showing at the Scottish Open over the weekend. He could try to win majors at St. Andrews and Pebble Beach in the same year, much like Tiger in 2000.

What about world No. 4 Steve Stricker? His impressive victory at the John Deere Classic on Sunday would put him in good shape to make a run at that first major victory.

Perhaps the most famous hole in golf, the Road Hole, 17th at St. Andrews has been lengthened by almost 40 yards. The hole will now play at 490 yards come Thursday.

ESPN and ABC have the coverage all week, including 4:00 a.m. (et) start times on Thursday and Friday. Coverage starts at 7 a.m. on Saturday and 6 a.m. Sunday.

Next week on the PGA Tour is the Canadian Open, which was won last year by Nathan Green. The European Tour features the Scandinavian Masters, which was captured by Ricardo Gonzalez.

PGA TOUR

RENO-TAHOE OPEN, Montreux Golf & Country Club, Reno, Nevada - The Biggest Little City in the world hosts the PGA Tour stop for those not qualified for the British Open.

The field is about as good as can be expected with a nice mix of young players trying to get that first win, or veterans trying to reclaim some youthful magic.

Last year, John Rollins mixed three bogeys, a double-bogey, an eagle and three birdies in an even-par round of 72 on Sunday to get his third PGA Tour victory.

Rollins won by three over Jeff Quinney and Martin Laird. Rollins didn't make it into the British Open field, so he'll be back on Thursday to defend his title.

The 2009 event was staged opposite the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational and was played the first week of August. The now defunct U.S. Bank Championship in Milwaukee played opposite the Open Championship.

The Golf Channel has the broadcast all week.

Next week is the Canadian Open.

NATIONWIDE TOUR

CHIQUITA CLASSIC, TPC River's Bend, Cincinnati, Ohio - This is a new event on the Nationwide Tour this year, per an announcement in early March of this year.

The TPC River's Bend was designed by Arnold Palmer and opened in 2001.

The Golf Channel broadcasts all four rounds.

Next week the Nationwide Tour stays in Ohio for the Nationwide Children's Hospital Invitational at The OSU Golf Club. Derek Lamely won the title last year.

CANADIAN TOUR

THE PLAYERS CUP, Pine Ridge Golf Club, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada - One of two major Canadian Tour major championships, the Players Cup, takes center stage this week.

Well, after one of the four big major championships.

For the third consecutive year, Pine Ridge Golf Club is host. The winner of this championship gets a first-place check for $48,000 and a spot in next week's Canadian Open on the PGA Tour.

Graham DeLaet shot a 69 on Sunday and came from behind to win for the second time on the Canadian Tour in 2009. He won the ATB Financial Classic earlier in the year.

DeLaet won't be on hand to defend his title. He reached the PGA Tour through Q School and is scheduled to compete at the Reno-Tahoe Open.

There is no television for this tournament.

The Canadian Open is technically on the Canadian Tour schedule, but the next tournament is the Jane Rogers Championship on Aug. 9. Ryan Yip visited the winner's circle last year.

UNITED STATES GOLF ASSOCIATION

U.S. AMATEUR PUBLIC LINKS CHAMPIONSHIP, Bryan Park Golf & Conference Center, Greensboro, North Carolina - One of golf's oldest amateur tournaments starts on Monday.

There's two days of stroke play on Monday and Tuesday. That determines the low 64 players and then it's match play. The first round is Wednesday, followed by the second and third rounds on Thursday, the quarterfinals and semifinals on Friday and the 36-hole final on Saturday.

Brad Benjamin won last year's title, but is not back to defend.

Ryan Moore, former Masters champion Trevor Immelman and reigning Players Champion Tim Clark highlight a group of former winners.

Next week there are two USGA events, the U.S. Junior Amateur and the U.S. Girls' Junior.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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