This Week in Auto Racing July 23 - 25

Autoracing Betting Lines

07/20/2010 - Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - NASCAR is in Indianapolis this weekend, and that means someone will kiss the bricks at the "big" track, while a lot of beating and banging will go on at the nearby "short" track. The IZOD IndyCar Series will be in Canada for the second week in a row with the Honda Indy Edmonton, and Formula One will rev it up with the German Grand Prix in Hockenheim.

NASCAR

Sprint Cup Series

Brickyard 400 - Indianapolis Motor Speedway - Indianapolis, IN

After taking a week off, the Sprint Cup Series heads to the famed Indianapolis Motor Speedway for one of the most prestigious races of the season -- the Brickyard 400.

This year, Jimmie Johnson is looking to join an elite group of drivers who have won four or more times at Indy. Johnson, the four-time defending series champion, has won the 400-mile race at Indy the last two years and three of the last four.

His Hendrick Motorsports teammate, Jeff Gordon, won the Brickyard 400 in 1994 (inaugural year), '98, 2001 and '04. IndyCar legends A.J. Foyt, Al Unser and Rick Mears have four victories each in the Indianapolis 500. Formula One star Michael Schumacher holds the record for most wins at Indy. Schumacher won the United States Grand Prix here five times, including four in a row from 2003-06.

"It would be a huge honor to join the list of four time winners," Johnson said. "Just to win there once is a career maker for anyone, so to have three victories, there means a lot to me. When I went to do the winners' circle appearance a month or so ago, I was there with Rick Mears and to see him as a four-time winner and to talk about his experiences at the track and what it's done for his life and career was neat. It helped me open my eyes to his world and the open-wheel world there."

One year ago, Johnson became the first driver to win the Brickyard 400 in consecutive years. Johnson held off a furious charge from his teammate Mark Martin in the closing laps. Juan Pablo Montoya had the car to beat at Indy, as he led 116 of 160 laps. But Montoya was caught speeding on pit road during the final round of stops and had to serve a pass-through penalty. Montoya, who was hoping to become the first driver to win both the Brickyard 400 and the Indianapolis 500, wound up finishing 11th. His Indy 500 victory came in 2000.

Earlier this year, Montoya's team owner, Chip Ganassi, made motorsports history by becoming the first owner to win the Daytona 500 and the Indianapolis 500 in the same year. Jamie McMurray won at Daytona for Earnhardt-Ganassi Racing with Felix Sabates in February, while Dario Franchitti captured the victory at Indianapolis for Target Chip Ganassi Racing in May.

"At the big events, our season has been pretty good," Ganassi said. "Obviously, with the wins at Daytona and Indianapolis, we have the big events covered."

Now the question is whether McMurray or Montoya can give Ganassi a win in the Brickyard 400 on Sunday.

In the 16-year history of the Brickyard 400, the winner of this race has gone on to clinch the Cup championship that season eight times, including the last two years with Johnson.

Kevin Harvick, who won the Brickyard 400 for Richard Childress Racing in 2003, currently holds a 103-point lead over Gordon. Harvick was 25th in points at this time last year.

"Indy is just like Daytona, and everybody wants to win that particular race," said Harvick, who finished sixth one year ago at Indy. "For us last year, that was kind of where the turnaround started with our new cars."

Gordon won the Brickyard 400 and the series title in 1998 and 2001. Presently second in points, he has been winless in the last 48 races, which is now the longest drought in his illustrious Cup career. However, Gordon has finished third, fourth or fifth in the last five races.

"I think the only frustration I see is letting the wins that I feel like we really could have pulled off slip away," Gordon said. "Those are a little frustrating to me, but I'm really proud of the top fives we've put together. I'd like to get back to being more dominant. We need to lead more laps. That's what was putting us in position to win races earlier in the season. We got off that a little bit. We weren't leading like we were. That's what's gonna get us back into victory lane. I feel like we're right there, though. We're just so close."

Winning at Indianapolis has always been a lifelong dream for drivers, including Stewart-Haas Racing teammates and Indiana natives Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman. Stewart, from nearby Columbus, IN, has two victories in the Brickyard 400 (2005 and '07), while Newman, who grew up roughly 140 miles north of Indianapolis in South Bend, has only one top-10 finish in nine starts at Indy. He finished fourth in the 2002 race.

"For both of us growing up from Indiana, it's a special event for the whole series in general, but when you've grown up near that speedway, it's a big goal and a lifelong dream for us to have that opportunity," Stewart said.

Forty-seven teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Brickyard 400.

Nationwide Series

Kroger 200 - O'Reilly Raceway Park at Indianapolis - Clermont, IN

While the Sprint Cup Series competes at the "big" track in Indianapolis, the Nationwide Series will race down the road at O'Reilly Raceway Park. Nationwide teams have been running at the 0.686-mile track each year since the inception of the series in 1982.

Obviously, there has been a lot of hype surrounding the latest on-track altercation between Carl Edwards and Brad Keselowski. While battling for the lead during the last lap in last Saturday's Nationwide race at Gateway International Raceway, Edwards nudged Keselowski and spun him into the frontstretch wall as they were heading out of the final turn.

Edwards won at Gateway for the third time, while Keselowski slid across the finish line in 14th-place before Shelby Howard plowed into him, causing another spin around. Keselowski saw his points lead trimmed to 168 over Edwards.

"I'm sure he'll say how sorry he is, or how cool he thinks he is, or how great of a guy he is in his own mind, but that's not reality," Keselowski said after the Gateway race.

Gateway was the latest in an on-going feud between Edwards and Keselowski. Will the Edwards-Keselowski rivalry continue at ORP? It certainly will make for an interesting Saturday night here.

"After looking at it, we can each step in the other's shoes and see it from another perspective," Edwards said. "From my side, we'll just go keep racing."

Edwards is the defending race winner at ORP. In last year's event, he had to charge from the rear of the field before passing Kyle Busch for the lead in the closing laps to win at ORP for the first time. Edwards had to start from the back since Colin Braun qualified his car. He was held up in the rain- delayed Sprint Cup qualifying session and then final practice at nearby Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

Morgan Shepherd leads all drivers with three victories at ORP. Shepherd won here in 1982, '84 and '88. Busch, Kevin Harvick, Jason Keller and Randy LaJoie are the other drivers with repeat wins at this track.

Forty-four teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Kroger 200.

Camping World Truck Series

AAA Insurance 200 - O'Reilly Raceway Park at Indianapolis - Clermont, IN

The Camping World Truck Series will join the Nationwide Series this weekend at the 0.686-mile O'Reilly Raceway Park at Indianapolis.

After finishing fourth in last Friday's race at Gateway International Raceway, Todd Bodine widened his lead to 101 points over Aric Almirola, who finished eighth.

"The pit stop was the difference," Bodine said of his top-five run at Gateway. "We got a little track position from great pit stops again. I have the best crew on pit road for sure."

Bodine has yet to win a short-track race in his truck career. His best finish at ORP is sixth, which came in 2007.

Kyle Busch is the only Sprint Cup Series regular entered in Friday night's truck race. Busch has two Nationwide victories at ORP, but has yet to win in a truck event here.

Ron Hornaday Jr. made series history one year ago at ORP. Hornaday became the first driver to win four races in a row. He held off a furious challenge from Mike Skinner in the late going for his third win here. He also won at ORP in 1997 and 2007.

Hornaday extended his record to five consecutive victories the following week at Nashville Superspeedway, but he has not won a race since then. The four- time and defending series champion currently is sixth in points (-261).

Johanna Long is expected to become the youngest female to compete in the series. The 18-year-old Long will drive the No.15 Toyota for Billy Ballew Motorsports at ORP.

"She's extremely talented and has been very successful to this point," team owner Billy Ballew said. "The series is a great venue for her to grow as a driver."

Last year at ORP, Caitlin Shaw set the series record for youngest female competitor at the age of 19. Shaw finished 24th, driving the No.1 Toyota for Red Horse Racing.

Thirty-seven teams are on the preliminary entry list for the AAA Insurance 200.

IZOD INDYCAR SERIES

Honda Indy Edmonton - City Centre Raceway - Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

For the second straight week, the IZOD IndyCar Series runs in Canada with the Honda Indy Edmonton at City Centre Raceway in Edmonton, Alberta. This will be third year the series competes at the 1.96-mile, 14-turn temporary street/airport course.

After his victory in last Sunday's race at Toronto, Team Penske's Will Power increased his lead to 42 points over Target Chip Ganassi Racing driver and defending series champion Dario Franchitti. Power also won earlier this month at Watkins Glen, NY.

Once again, Power will have the opportunity to win a series record-tying third consecutive race. The Australian driver won the first two races this season -- Sao Paulo, Brazil and St. Petersburg, FL. If Power takes Edmonton, he will join Kenny Brack (1998), Dan Wheldon (2005) and Scott Dixon (2007) as those drivers who recorded three consecutive victories.

"I believe if you're put in that position, you should be winning," Power said. "You're given the equipment to win. I've been given a full-time ride in one of the best teams in the series. To repay them, you've got to win."

Power notched his first career IndyCar win in last year's race at Edmonton. He started on the pole and led 90 of 95 laps, relinquishing the top position only when he pitted. Power held a one-second lead over his teammate Helio Castroneves before the race ended under caution for an incident involving Tomas Scheckter with less than two laps remaining.

All four of Power's wins this year have come on road/street courses. After Edmonton, the Mid-Ohio and Sonoma, CA road courses are the next two races on the schedule before the series concludes its season with Chicagoland, Kentucky, Motegi, Japan and Homestead, FL -- all of which are 1.5-mile ovals.

"I know it's going to be a tough championship to win," Power said. "I was aware coming into the season that I had lack of experience on mile-and-a-half ovals. I think the only place it really showed was Kansas, where I was very cautious and just finished the race [12th]. Everywhere else, I felt like I could have challenged for the win.

"I want to win an oval race before the year's out. I've been knocking on the door, so I think that may come."

Dixon won the inaugural race at Edmonton in 2008, the same year he clinched his second series title. The Ganassi driver currently sits third in points (-78).

FORMULA ONE

German Grand Prix - Hockenheimring - Hockenheim, Germany

The Formula One season resumes this weekend with the German Grand Prix, which returns to the 2.842-mile (4.574-km), 13-turn Hockenheimring circuit.

With 10 of 19 rounds completed this year, Lewis Hamilton from McLaren enters the German GP as the championship points leader. Hamilton has accumulated 145 points so far, compared to 133 for Jenson Button, who is the defending F1 champion and Hamilton's teammate.

"I won the last race at Hockenheim in 2008," said Hamilton, who also captured the F1 title in '08. "We had a fantastic car. I got pole position and had a great battle through the field after a mid-race safety car to win. So I'd really love the same outcome [this] weekend."

Red Bull Racing teammates Mark Webber and Sebastian Vettel sit third and fourth, respectively, in the point rankings.

Last week, Webber won the British Grand Prix with a flawless performance at Silverstone. Webber started alongside Vettel on the front row, but Vettel quickly got pushed wide, as his teammate made the pass for the lead coming out of the first corner. He ran in front for the remainder of the event to claim his third win of the season.

Webber got redemption at Silverstone one day after Red Bull officials pulled the newly developed front wing off of his car and gave it to Vettel prior to qualifying for the British GP. Vettel's front wing had been damaged during final practice.

The Australian felt Red Bull showed favoritism to Vettel, particularly after the young German easily won his fifth pole this season.

But Webber claims the air has been cleared at Red Bull, as the team prepares for Germany.

"The British Grand Prix was a wonderful result for myself and the team," Webber said. "However, time moves fast and looking in the mirror for too long doesn't prepare us for Germany. We've moved on."

Webber won last year's German GP, which was contested on the 3.2-mile (5.148- km), 16-turn Nurburgring course. He rebounded from a drive-through penalty in the early going to become a first-time race winner in F1. Webber's maiden win came in his 130th grand prix, which set a record for making the most starts before his first victory on the circuit.

The German GP will be a home race for six F1 drivers -- Vettel, Nico Rosberg, Adrian Sutil, Timo Glock, Nico Hulkenberg and seven-time F1 champion Michael Schumacher.

"There is one thing for sure; no matter how long you are around, it is always something special to race in front of your home crowd," Schumacher said. "The German Grand Prix is very special for any German driver."

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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