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02/20/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Petr Tenkrat scored a pair of goals to guide the Boston Bruins past the Philadelphia Flyers, 6-3, at the Wachovia Center.
Marc Savard finished with a goal and two assists and P.J. Axelsson tallied a goal and an assist for the Bruins, who have won four of their last five. Tim Thomas turned away 30 shots in an impressive outing for Boston.
Scottie Upshall, one of the main components in a trade that sent Peter Forsberg to Nashville last week, registered his second goal in as many games for Philadelphia, which had won three of four coming in. Upshall added an assist while Jeff Carter and Kyle Calder had a goal and two helpers each in defeat. Antero Niittymaki finished with 12 saves in net.
The contest started out slowly, as a Marco Sturm deflection goal at the 13:38 mark constituted the only scoring of the first period.
The flood gates, though, sprang wide open in the second period.
Upshall evened the game just 43 ticks into the stanza, and Carter's shot from the high slot beat Thomas at the 7:08 mark to put the Flyers in front.
Just 34 seconds later, though, Axelsson took a pass from Savard in the left circle and fired the disc past Niittymaki to even the score at 2-2.
Philadelphia nearly went ahead again at the midway point of the period when Carter broke in behind the defense, but his backhand try rang off the post. On the ensuing sequence, Tenkrat beat Niittymaki from the left circle to complete the momentum shift.
Tenkrat then made it a two-goal Boston advantage with a rebound putback with 4:24 left in the middle frame. Calder capped the wild action with his ninth goal of the year moments later to make it 4-3 heading into the final period.
Brandon Bochenski gave the road team a cushion 3:10 into the third, as he charged into the zone on a rush before firing a shot from the right circle that slipped just inside the far post.
Savard added an empty-net goal with 31.4 seconds left to cap the scoring.
Game Notes
Flyers forward Ben Eager sustained a lower-body injury midway through the second period and did not return...This was the third installment of a six- game road trip for Boston, which owns a 12-14-2 record away from home...The Flyers are a dismal 5-17-7 at the Wachovia Center this season.
<< Hayward, No. 16 Golden Eagles down Wildcats
Milwaukee, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Lazar Hayward scored a career-high 18 points,
and the 16th-ranked Marquette Golden Eagles topped the Villanova Wildcats,
80-67.
Dominic James also scored 18 points for Marquette (22-7, 9-5 Big East
<< Hartnell helps Predators top Coyotes
Nashville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Scott Hartnell scored a pair of early second-
period goals in a 23-second span for the fastest two goals ever scored by any
Predator, as Nashville regained possession of first place in the Central
Divisio
<< Teuflesberg posts upset victory in Southwest Stakes
Hot Springs, AR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Five weeks after finishing a distant third
to Hard Spun at the Fair Grounds, 23-1 longshot Teuflesberg registered a major
upset on Presidents' Day over the Kentucky Derby hopeful. Teuflesberg went
wire to
<< Kotalik out 4-to-6 weeks
Buffalo, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Buffalo Sabres forward Ales Kotalik is expected
to be sidelined the next 4-to-6 weeks due to a right knee injury.
Kotalik suffered the injury in Saturday night's shootout loss to Boston. He
has 14 goals an
Roitman tops fellow countryman Acasuso >>
Buenos Aires, Argentina (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sergio Roitman defeated eighth seed
and fellow Argentine Jose Acasuso, 7-6 (7-4), 6-1 at the round-robin $445,000
Copa Telmex tennis event on Monday.
Acasuso was the runner-up at this event in 2001
Venus wins in return to court >>
Memphis, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - American Venus Williams returned to the court
after a four month layoff with a three-set victory over Japan's Akiko Morigami
in the opening-round of the $175,000 Regions Morgan Keegan Championships
and the
Panthers hold off Pirates >>
East Rutherford, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Levance Fields scored 15 points and
Jamar Nutter's last-second three rimmed out as the short-handed No. 10
Pittsburgh Panthers survived a scare, edging the Seton Hall Pirates, 71-68.
Levon K
No. 6 Jayhawks top Wildcats, extend Little Apple dominance >>
Manhattan, KS (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sherron Collins netted 20 points on 8-of-11
shooting as No. 6 Kansas continued its domination over rival Kansas State with
a 71-62 victory.
Mario Chalmers added 17 points while Darrell Arthur posted 13
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
BILLS (+10) at Steelers SPORTSBOOK LINES
It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover.
BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES
All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week.
COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES
Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy.
TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES
Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win.
RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win.
PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start.
JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch.
SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
I'm picking way too many road teams this week. Oh well. New Orleans has had some time to reflect on its lackluster showing in the opener, and the Buccanneers just aren't a very good football team. Anyone else surprised Tampa Bay hasn't made a move to sign Byron Leftwich? I thought that's what they do.
VIKINGS (+3) at Lions SPORTS BETTING LINES
Run the ball and stop the run. Minnesota can do both, and that will keep them in a lot of games this season. Even though it was only one week, Adrian Peterson looks like he was a steal at No. 7 in last year's draft. Not only will he produce, but Peterson delivers excitement to what otherwise would be one of the league's most boring teams.
DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES
Lost in the Tony Romo lovefest is just how bad the Cowboys' defense was last week. I know they're banged up, but Dallas' 'D' allowed 438 yards to the Giants' offense, and backup running back Derrick Ward averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cam Cameron's decision to split carries between Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman sounds about as can't-miss as Larry David's plan to show up to Marty Funkhouser's party a night late. Still, gotta go with Miami to cover at home.
SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES
I'm probably missing something, but this game seems too easy. Arizona blew Monday night's game against the 49ers in typical Cardinals fashion, and the Seahawks beat Tampa Bay by two touchdowns. Love Seattle in this one.
BRONCOS (-9.5) vs. Raiders SPORTS BETTING LINES
Special teams was a major story line in Week 1. Take a look at the Broncos. They had to rush on to the field to get a Jason Elam field goal as time expired against the Bills. Denver drove into Buffalo territory on eight of 10 drives but came away with just a pair of field goals and a touchdown. Look for more scoring from the Broncos this week against an Oakland defense that gave up 36 points to Detroit in Week 1.
BEARS (-12) vs. Chiefs SPORTS BETTING LINES
Everyone talks about Rex Grossman when dissecting the Bears' offense, but Chicago's quarterback got no help in last week's loss to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City confirmed what we all thought while watching Hard Knocks: The Chiefs are going to stink this year. It could be a rough first month for Larry Johnson fantasy owners. Kansas City's RB was limited to 43 yards on 10 carries in Week 1, and the Chiefs face the Bears, Vikings and Chargers the next three weeks, all formidable run defenses.
RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES
A big dose of Willis McGahee and a usual sound defensive effort will give the Ravens their first win. According to Football Outsiders, no team in the NFL rushed only three defenders on pass plays last year more than the Jets. And according to my special Jets correspondent Ben Stauber, New York did the same in Week 1. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens should have all day to throw.
PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Chargers
Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1.
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting.
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