Mets take rubber match from Cards thanks to Dickey, Davis

Baseball Betting Lines

07/29/2010 - Flushing, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rookie Ike Davis hit a three-run homer and knuckballer R.A. Dickey went 8 1/3 innings, as the New York Mets earned a 4-0 win over the St. Louis Cardinals in the rubber match of a three-game set at Citi Field.

Angel Pagan chipped in two hits including a triple and scored twice, while Carlos Beltran contributed a run-scoring single for the Mets, who won for only the third time in the last 10 games overall.

Dickey (7-4), who was working on three days rest after exiting his last start on Sunday with a left leg injury after 5 2/3 innings, was sensational. He yielded only four hits, finishing with two strikeouts and a pair of walks. Francisco Rodriguez retired the final two batters in the ninth to pick up his 22nd save of the season.

Jon Jay had a double for St. Louis, which has dropped five of seven since winning eight in a row. Ryan Ludwick, Skip Schumaker and Colby Rasmus had the other Cardinal hits -- all singles.

Blake Hawksworth (4-7) worked six innings, allowing seven runs on four hits with three walks and as many strikeouts in taking the loss.

New York threatened in the second, but came up empty before putting up a three-spot in the third courtesy of Davis. Jose Reyes doubled to lead off the inning and Pagan singled to put runners on the corners. After Beltran flied out to shallow center, Davis jumped on a first-pitch changeup and crushed it into the centerfield seats.

Meanwhile, Dickey kept the Cardinals off the board with an effective knuckball and the Mets gave him another run to work with in the fifth. Pagan tripled into the right-field gap with one about and crossed the plate on Beltran's line drive base hit to left. New York was bidding for more, as Mike Hessman walked and Josh Thole followed with a single up the middle, however, Beltran was thrown out on the plate by centerfielder Jay.

Dickey retired nine Cardinal hitters in a row, then gave up a one-out eighth inning single to Schumaker, who advanced to second on a wild pitch with two away. Pinch-hitter Randy Winn bounced out to second to end the inning.

The Mets loaded the bases on a pair of walks and a hit batter in the home eighth, but Dickey grounded into a force out at the plate and Reyes grounded out to second to keep it a 4-0 game.

In the top of the ninth, Dickey gave up a base hit to pinch-hitter Rasmus and after retiring the next hitter, issued a walk to Jay which ended his outing at 118 pitches. Rodriguez came on and retired Albert Pujols on a fly ball and struck out Matt Holliday looking to lock down the win.

Game Notes

Mets third baseman David Wright was given the day off for rest...The Cardinals won two of three at home over the Mets from April 16-18, but lost four of six at Citi Field a season ago...New York went 4-for-11 with runners in scoring position and stranded nine, while St. Louis finished 0-for-5 with RISP and left four.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

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