Colts' future to be determined in finale with Jags

Football Betting Lines

12/30/2011 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Who'd have guessed it would come to this?

A few weeks ago, the Indianapolis Colts seemed inexorably on their way to a winless season that would guarantee a dubious -- though much needed -- consolation prize in a chance to presumably select Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck with the No. 1 pick in next April's NFL Draft.

But a funny thing happened on the way to the war room. The Colts let a winning streak get in the way.

Consecutive defeats of the Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans, while assuaging a fan base accustomed to perennial playoff contention, have complicated matters for a front office on the eve of Indianapolis' Week 17 visit to Jacksonville's EverBank Field for Sunday's season finale with the Jaguars.

Now tied with St. Louis for the league's worst record at 2-13, the Colts could lose the top overall pick if they beat the 4-11 Jaguars and the Rams lose as expected to the playoff-bound San Francisco 49ers this weekend.

If both teams finish with identical marks, Indianapolis would maintain the No. 1 slot and have first crack at selecting Luck, seen by many as the ideal heir apparent to an aging 35-year-old Peyton Manning, who's missed the entire 2011 schedule after a pair of neck surgeries.

St. Louis's actions with the pick would be unclear, given that the Rams drafted quarterback Sam Bradford with the first overall pick in 2010.

"That's not for the players to worry about," Colts running back Joseph Addai said of the team's draft status. "I don't worry about that. I just go out and keep playing ball."

The Colts dropped a 17-3 home verdict to Jacksonville on Nov. 13 after gaining just 212 yards of offense. Meanwhile, Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew gained 114 yards on his own in that contest.

Jones-Drew enters the season's final week with a league-best 1,437 yards rushing, 128 more than Philadelphia's LeSean McCoy. He's accounted for 46.5 percent of Jacksonville's offense this season, a pace that's well ahead of former teammate Fred Taylor's club record of 36.2 percent set in 2003.

The Pro Bowl back could be the second player since 1995 to lead the league in rushing with the NFL's worst passing offense. Previously, Baltimore's Jamal Lewis accomplished the feat in 2003.

"He's been a beast," Jacksonville guard Uche Nwaneri said of Jones-Drew. "Everyone knows we're going to run it and they still can't stop him. It's unbelievable."

Sunday's game will be the Jaguars' last under owners Wayne and Delores Weaver, who helped bring the franchise to Jacksonville in 1995. Shahid Khan bought the team two weeks ago for $760 million and will officially take over on Jan. 4.

"Mr. and Mrs. Weaver mean a lot to this city and our fans and our players know that. Our coaches know that," Jaguars interim head coach Mel Tucker said. "We want to put our best foot forward in their last game. Quite frankly, we'll give everything we can for them to finish on a high note."

SERIES HISTORY

Indianapolis has prevailed in 15 of 21 all-time matchups with Jacksonville, but the Jaguars have won two of the last three meetings in the series and dealt the Colts a 31-28 loss at EverBank Field last season. Indianapolis had come out on top in three consecutive visits to Jacksonville prior to that defeat, including a 35-31 verdict in 2009, and sports a 7-3 overall record as the visitor in this set. The Colts' most recent triumph over the Jaguars came at home by a 34-24 score during December of the 2010 campaign, and Jacksonville has never previously recorded a season sweep over Indianapolis in its history.

Six of the last eight contests between these teams have been decided by seven points or less, and five of those tilts had a margin of victory of four points or fewer.

Indianapolis' Jim Caldwell owns a 3-2 career record against Jacksonville as a head coach, while Tucker will be opposing both Caldwell and the Colts for the first time as a man in charge.

WHEN THE COLTS HAVE THE BALL

In the team's two wins, Colts quarterback Dan Orlovsky has completed 34-of-58 passes for 326 yards with two touchdowns, zero interceptions and an 85.8 passer rating. He has a 95.0 rating in the fourth quarter as a starter in 2011 as well. Addai had two rush touchdowns in the Colts' 2010 meeting with the Jags in Jacksonville, while backfield mate Donald Brown is averaging 7.3 yards per carry in past two games (27 attempts, 196 yards). Wide receiver Reggie Wayne needs 113 receiving yards to reach 1,000 for the eighth consecutive season. He had a game-winning touchdown catch against the Texans last week and has two scoring receptions in the Colts' past two games. Wayne also has compiled 1,599 career receiving yards against the Jaguars, his most against any opponent. Fellow wideout Pierre Garcon (925 receiving yards) needs 75 receiving yards to reach 1,000 for the first time in his career and has six touchdown receptions this season, tied for a career-best set last year. Slot receiver Austin Collie has four touchdown receptions in his past four games against the Jaguars.

Middle linebacker Paul Posluszny leads the Jaguars with 115 tackles and had an interception against the Colts in the Week 10 win, while end Jeremy Mincey has a career-best 5 1/2 sacks in 2011 and registered the first pick of his career in last Saturday's 23-17 loss at Tennessee. Cornerback Drew Coleman had an interception in Jacksonville's previous game against the Colts this year, while fellow defensive back Morgan Trent posted his first pick as a Jaguar last week.

Statistically speaking, the Colts' offense is 28th in scoring (15.3 ppg), 30th in total yards (286.1 ypg), 27th in passing (183.5 ypg) and 24th in rushing (102.5 ypg). On defense, the Jaguars are 11th in points allowed (21.1 ppg), fifth in total yards allowed (314.0 ypg), seventh against the pass (206.6 ypg) and 11th against the run (107.4 ypg).

WHEN THE JAGUARS HAVE THE BALL

Rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert, the 10th overall pick in this past April's draft, has thrown two touchdown passes in each of his past two home games and registered his first win against an AFC South opponent in Jacksonville's Nov. 13 victory at Indianapolis. Jones-Drew (1,437 rushing yards) needs 136 yards to surpass Taylor (1,572 in 2003) for the most on the ground in a season in franchise history, and also needs just one rushing touchdown to surpass Taylor (62) for the most scores in team annals. Jones-Drew has 74 career touchdowns, the most ever by a Jaguar, and averages 95.8 rushing yards per game against the Colts for his career while amassing 80 yards or more in 14 of 15 games in 2011. Tight end Marcedes Lewis has the most receiving yards (2,651) and touchdown receptions (17) by a tight end in club history, while second-year receiver Jarett Dillard posted his first career scoring catch in the last meeting against Indianapolis.

Colts defensive end Dwight Freeney, the team's lone representative to the upcoming Pro Bowl, has nine career sacks against the Jaguars and counterpart Robert Mathis has three sacks, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery over the past two games. Mathis (8.5 sacks) aims for a third straight game with a sack against Jacksonville as well and needs 1 1/2 sacks to reach double digits for the fifth time in his career. Middle linebacker Pat Angerer has a team-best 137 tackles along with a sack, two forced fumbles and a fumble recovery in 15 games this year, while Antoine Bethea has produced 129 tackles and two forced fumbles.

By the numbers, Jacksonville is 29th in scoring (14.9 ppg), dead last in both total yards (259.2 ypg) and passing (140.5 ypg) and 13th in rushing (118.7 ypg). On defense, the Colts are 30th in points allowed (27.4 ppg), 27th in yards allowed (378.3 ypg), 22nd against the pass (237.4 ypg) and 29th against the run (140.9 ypg).

KEYS TO THE GAME

Green Gabbert. The rookie quarterback has exceeded 200 yards passing just three times in his 14 games, including just 118 in the aforementioned November defeat of the Colts. Jacksonville has scored 20 points just twice in Gabbert's tenure, a number that may have to improve with Indianapolis having been a bit better on offense since Orlovsky took over.

Winning mentality. The Jaguars, who've lost five of six games since defeating the Colts in Week 10, haven't had a plus-.500 season since going 11-5 and reaching the playoffs in 2007, but will be motivated to send the Weavers out in style. Indianapolis, meanwhile, would love to finish what's been a dreadful campaign strong to build momentum for the upcoming season.

Long goodbye. Indianapolis veterans such as Wayne, Mathis and center Jeff Saturday are each in the final year of their respective contracts and may be playing their final game with the Colts, which could also serve as an intangible. Wayne caught the decisive pass in the final seconds of last week's 19-16 defeat of Houston.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

The Jaguars have been no one's example of success this season, but they do have this particular game's best player in Jones-Drew and a defense that's high-end enough to shut down an offense led by the likes of Orlovsky. The Indianapolis veterans might have a bullet or two left in the gun, but the matchups on both sides of the ball tip the scales in the home team's favor.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Jaguars 17, Colts 13

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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