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08/13/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It should go without saying that no one wants to play the role of runner-up. An obvious statement, but a more profound one in the NFL, where Super Bowl runners-up have historically enjoyed an ignoble fate.
Before the Seattle Seahawks made a return trip to the postseason in 2006, none of the previous five Super Bowl losers had reached the playoffs in the season that followed their big-stage disappointment.
What's more, not since the early 1970s has a team that lost the Super Bowl come back to win it the next year. The 1972 Miami Dolphins performed the feat, in an era that came long before the salary cap rendered staying near the top exponentially more difficult.
With that history in mind, you wouldn't expect Bears fans to be filled with optimism that the raising of the club's first Lombardi Trophy in more than two decades is imminent. Though on paper, Lovie Smith's club should again be in decent shape.
That hot-and-cold offensive corps has lost running back Thomas Jones, but the passing game figures to get a much-needed boost via the addition of pass- catching tight end Greg Olsen.
There has been more attrition on defense, with coordinator Ron Rivera's absence among the most significant, but the karma on that side of the ball is all of the positive variety as the season nears.
That's because the threatened holdout of linebacker Lance Briggs didn't even last a day, with Briggs signing a one-year deal to at least temporarily cancel that soap opera.
And the team's decision to release troubled defensive tackle Tank Johnson may have raised some eyebrows, but the subsequent trade for ex-Eagles starter Darwin Walker may in fact have netted Chicago a better player.
Also, the fact must be faced that the Bears are still far and away the best team in the NFC North, once again among the weakest divisions in football. A double-digit win total would seem a virtual certainty for this year's version of the Monsters of the Midway, and a January home game or two in the cold of the Windy City would again offer Smith and company an advantage over their conference brethren.
Inasmuch, the Bears' toughest opponent of 2007 could be history itself.
Below we take a capsule look at the 2007 edition of the Chicago Bears, with a personnel evaluation and prognosis included therein:
2006 RECORD: 13-3 (1st, NFC North)
LAST PLAYOFF APPEARANCE: 2006, lost to Indianapolis, 29-17, in Super Bowl
COACH (RECORD): Lovie Smith (29-19 in three seasons with Bears, 29-19 overall)
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Ron Turner
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Bob Babich
OFFENSIVE STAR: Rex Grossman, QB (3193 passing yards, 23 TD, 20 INT)
DEFENSIVE STAR: Brian Urlacher, LB (141 tackles, 3 INT)
OFFENSIVE TEAM RANKS: 15th rushing, 14th passing, t2nd scoring
DEFENSIVE TEAM RANKS: 6th rushing, 11th passing, 3rd scoring
FIVE KEY GAMES: Dallas (9/23), at Detroit (9/30), at Green Bay (10/7), at Minnesota (12/17), New Orleans (12/30)
KEY ADDITIONS: RB Garrett Wolfe (3rd Round, Northern Illinois), FB Obafemi Ayanbadejo (from Cardinals), TE Greg Olsen (1st Round, Miami-Florida), DE Dan Bazuin (2nd Round, Central Michigan), DT Anthony Adams (from 49ers), DT Darwin Walker (from Bills/Eagles), LB Michael Okwo (3rd Round, Stanford), S Adam Archuleta (from Redskins)
KEY DEPARTURES: RB Thomas Jones (to Jets), WR Justin Gage (to Titans), DT Tank Johnson (released), DT Ian Scott (to Eagles), DT Alfonso Boone (to Chiefs), S Todd Johnson (to Rams), S Cameron Worrell (to Dolphins), S Chris Harris (to Panthers)
QB: It was a weird, wild first year as a starter for Grossman, who seemed to either look like a Pro Bowler or completely overmatched, with very little in between. Grossman's Super Bowl performance, in which he turned the ball over three times and led just one scoring drive longer than 14 yards, did little to establish his place among the NFL elite. Smith will stand by Grossman in the hopes that he will mature, but the head coach will be under pressure to make a change every time the former first-round pick experiences a meltdown. The depth chart behind Grossman will remain the same, with Brian Griese (220 passing yards, 1 TD, 2 INT) awaiting a chance to relieve Grossman and Kyle Orton trying to remember the days when he was Chicago's starter.
RB: It is put up or shut up time for Cedric Benson (647 rushing yards, 6 TD), the 2005 first-round draft pick who finally gets a chance to start now that Thomas Jones is a Jet. Benson evokes comparisons to Chiefs running back Larry Johnson, both due to his hard-hitting style and enigmatic personality, and should be a 1,500-yard back if healthy. Spelling Benson will either be veteran special teams ace Adrian Peterson (41 rushing yards, 2 TD), who has performed well every time he has been called upon since entering the league in 2002, or third-round draft choice and local favorite Garrett Wolfe. At 5-foot-7, 177 pounds, Wolfe will have to prove to skeptics that he can withstand an NFL pounding. Jason McKie (25 receptions) all but solidified his status as the starting fullback when free agent pickup Obafemi Ayanbadejo (17 receptions with the Cardinals) was suspended four games for using a banned substance early in training camp.
WR/TE: Chicago had four impact wide receivers in 2006, all of whom - possession man Muhsin Muhammad (60 receptions, 5 TD), deep threat Bernard Berrian (51 receptions, 6 TD), and backups Rashied Davis (22 receptions, 2 TD) and Mark Bradley (14 receptions, 3 TD) - return. But it is the new face in the Bears receiving group that was grabbing the most headlines early in camp. Electrifying return man and reserve defensive back Devin Hester was injected into the receiving mix, a la Deion Sanders, and his presence alone should give opposing defensive coordinators headaches. Because of Hester's varied responsibilities, the team will probably keep one more receiver, and former Oregon State star and Saints draft choice Mike Hass figures to be that guy. Apart from Hester, the team's biggest pass-catching addition is first-round draft choice and tight end Greg Olsen. Olsen gives Grossman a significant receiving option over the middle of the field, and relegates holdovers Desmond Clark (45 receptions, 6 TD) and John Gilmore (6 receptions, 2 TD) to serving mainly as blockers.
OL: The Bears line was not among the most heralded in the league a year ago, but played extremely well in both the run- and pass-blocking phases of the game. The entire starting group of left tackle John Tait, left guard Ruben Brown, center Olin Kreutz, right guard Roberto Garza, and right tackle Fred Miller is back in the fold. Brown and Kreutz were both Pro Bowlers in 2006. Tackle John St. Clair and guard Terrence Metcalf are Chicago's top o-line backups, and a pair of draft picks - center/guard Josh Beekman and tackle Aaron Brant - were attempting to secure backup jobs during camp.
DL: The work of the Bears' interior defensive line will bear watching this season, as that group loses three players - Tank Johnson, Ian Scott, and Alfonso Boone - who were significant contributors last season. In addition, the club's top DT, Tommie Harris (28 tackles, 5 sacks), comes off a hamstring injury that prematurely ended his 2006 campaign. Smith and new defensive coordinator Bob Babich are counting on newcomers Darwin Walker (36 tackles, 6 sacks, 1 INT with Philadelphia) and Anthony Adams (21 tackles, 2 sacks with the 49ers) along with holdovers Israel Idonije (19 tackles) and Dusty Dvoracek to help keep the unit afloat. Chicago is in a more certain state at end, where '06 staples Adewale Ogunleye (43 tackles, 6.5 sacks), Alex Brown (46 tackles, 7 sacks, 2 INT), and Mark Anderson (28 tackles, 12 sacks) are still in the fold. A fourth player, second-round draft choice Dan Bazuin, will be attempting to crack the end rotation as well.
LB: One of the bigger stories of the late-spring, early-summer faded with a whimper, as Briggs (130 tackles, 2 INT, 1 sack) reported to training camp and took his rightful place on the weak side. Briggs and middle man Brian Urlacher will continue to form the heart of one of the league's top linebacking units, and the third starter - strong side backer Hunter Hillenmeyer (48 tackles) - is no slouch either. Smith and Babich will have some tough decisions in locating the primary backups at LB. Third-round draft choice Michael Okwo is virtually assured of making the club, as is special teams stalwart Brendon Ayanbadejo (25 tackles). That leaves holdovers Rod Wilson (21 tackles), Jamar Williams (2 tackles), Leon Joe (10 tackles), and Darrell McClover (8 tackles) fighting for at most two spots. Give the early edge to Wilson, who appeared in 13 games a year ago, and Williams, a fourth-round draft choice in 2006.
DB: Chicago still has one of the most envied groups of cornerbacks in the league, with playmakers Nathan Vasher (45 tackles, 3 INT), Charles Tillman (80 tackles, 5 INT), and Ricky Manning Jr. (53 tackles, 5 INT, 2 sacks) making up an elite group. Things are a bit sketchier at safety, however, where second- year free safety Danieal Manning (67 tackles, 2 INT) is the only sure thing. The starter on the strong side will either be Adam Archuleta (60 tackles, 1 sack with the Redskins), who has played his way out of both St. Louis and Washington in the past two seasons, or veteran Mike Brown (23 tackles), who has played in only 20 games since 2003 due to injury. Backups should include the multi-talented Hester (9 tackles), special teams contributor Brandon McGowan, and perhaps second-day 2007 draft picks Corey Graham, Trumaine McBride and Kevin Payne.
SPECIAL TEAMS: There is not a better return specialist in the league than Hester (12.8 punt return avg. 26.4 kickoff return avg.), who broke an NFL record with six returns for touchdowns (three punt return, two kickoff, one missed FG) during the 2006 regular season, then led off the Super Bowl with a dazzling TD for a score. Don't be surprised if most teams choose to kick away from the Pro Bowler. The Bears are also set in the kicking game, with the solid Robbie Gould (32-36 FG) and Brad Maynard (44.2 avg.) both returning along with steady long-snapper Patrick Mannelly.
PROGNOSIS: The Bears were a team with flaws when they won the NFC in 2006, and they're still a team with flaws. On the bright side for Chicago, there isn't another club in the conference that is without major question marks as 2007 begins, leaving the door open for a return to the Super Bowl for Lovie Smith's squad. If the Bears can show some better playmaking ability on offense, which the presence of Benson, Olsen, and Hester could inspire, it will put less pressure on a defense that saw its dominant grip loosen in the latter stages of '06. Regardless, this will still be a high-quality defense thanks in large part to Urlacher, Briggs, and the cornerbacks, and no one is going to be scoring points in bunches on Chicago. All told, there isn't a team to touch the Bears in the NFC North, and their easy road to the postseason will set them up for further success come January.
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Albert Pujols to be This Year's Home Run Champ Says Online Sportsbook
Barry Bonds is a 50-1 long shot to be this year's home run champ odds. The favorite to be this year's home run champ is none other than Albert Pujols, however.
Now that Barry Bonds is signed and in Giants camp, it is on to his pursuit of all of sports most prestigious records: the all-time home run mark. Bonds sits just 21 homers shy of tying Hank Aaron for the career mark at 755. Word out of Giants’ camp is that Bonds is the healthiest he has been in a few years. Bonds is just two seasons removed from his injury riddled 2005 campaign where he played in only 14 games and hit only 5 home runs. He did come back last year and had a solid season hitting .270 with 26 bombs. All eyes will be on Bonds this spring and summer not only because of his home run chase but his highly publicized steroid abuse allegations. If and when Bonds breaks the record, he surely will not get the positive attention one should for breaking a record that was once thought of as “unbreakable”. Despite Bonds decent season last year, he is just 50-1 at MySportsbook.com to lead the MLB in long balls this season.
Not surprisingly, the favorites to go deep the most times this season are Albert Pujols 5-1, Ryan Howard 6-1, David Ortiz 8-1 and Alex Rodriguez 12-1. With 49 homers, Pujols finished second in the National League behind Howard (58). Pujols is considered the favorite due to the consistent power numbers that he has posted since breaking into the league in 2001. Also one must consider the fact that he played in 16 fewer games then Howard did due to an injury. Howard smashed 58 homers in his first complete season of big league play en route to the National League MVP odds award. He silenced his critics by successfully hitting left-handed pitching. Howard also displayed the ability to use his power to the opposite field. Two attributes which should keep Howard amongst the league leaders in long balls for years to come. From the American League representatives, David Ortiz leads the field. Ortiz was second in the majors last year with 54 home runs. Except for 1999 when he only played in 10 games, Ortiz has improved on his home run numbers each year he has been in the majors (1997).
Be sure to log onto online sports betting site MySportsbook.com to check out the odds for who will lead the MLB in home runs this season. Below is just a sample of the players listed. With the highest credit card rates in the industry, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on baseball this summer.
World Series odds
Adam Dunn 15-1
Albert Pujols 5-1
Alex Rodriguez 12-1
Alfonso Soriano 15-1
Andruw Jones 25-1
Barry Bonds 50-1
Carlos Delgado 40-1
David Ortiz 8-1
Jermaine Dye 40-1
Ken Griffey Jr. 100-1
Lance Berkman 40-1
Manny Ramirez 20-1
Richie Sexson 40-1
Ryan Howard 6-1
Travis Hafner 20-1
Vladimir Guerrero 40-1
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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