AL Central: The aftermath of the Call Heard 'Round the World

Baseball Betting Lines

06/04/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Major League Baseball's latest, and perhaps most compelling, argument for more instant replay came during the ninth inning of Detroit's 3-0 win over the Cleveland Indians Wednesday night.

Tigers' right-hander Armando Galarraga was one out away from a perfect game when Indians' shortstop Jason Donald dribbled a ground ball to the right side of the infield. First baseman Miguel Cabrera went to his right, fielded the grounder and flipped it to Galarraga, who clearly tagged the bag a step ahead of the runner.

Cabrera, Galarraga, and 17,000-plus fans at Comerica Park began to celebrate -- until Joyce shook the baseball world by signaling Donald safe, thus ending Galarraga's bid for perfection.

While Joyce's blown call will go down in baseball history, Galarraga's gem, unfortunately, will not. Still, to truly appreciate what transpired on that epic night in Detroit, you have to look at the path Galarraga traveled leading up to Wednesday's performance.

That journey began in 2008, when he led the team in wins as a rookie. But the next season he struggled mightily, and by the fall he was out of the rotation altogether. Entering Spring Training this season, the team's fifth starter spot was a battle between Galarraga, Dontrelle Willis and Nate Robertson.

However, Galarraga's struggles continued and he was the first candidate sent to Triple-A Toledo, where he spent the first five weeks of the season until being recalled on May 16. Meanwhile Willis, who eventually won the job, was dealt to Arizona this past Tuesday. That move opened the door for Galarraga to rejoin the rotation for another chance to prove himself.

Mind you, Galarraga had never even pitched nine full innings in any of his previous 56 starts. But armed with a more crisp slider and pinpoint control of his fastball, he went right to work on the Indians' lineup.

When all is said and done, one could argue that Galarraga will be better remembered for the events of Wednesday night, more so than had he became the 21st big league pitcher to record a perfect game. After all, we're talking about what is already widely regarded as one of the most controversial blown calls in the history of the game. Then again, don't try to sell that to Galarraga.

All throughout Detroit, and most of the country for that matter, he will be remembered as the only pitcher to toss a 28-out perfect game.

Unfortunately for the 28-year-old Venezuelan, that asterisk-laden honor will have to be his consolation prize. Well that, and a new cherry red Corvette, which was presented to him prior to Thursday's game from the folks at Chevrolet for his performance and sportsmanship in handling the gaffe. As a show of class and compassion, Galarraga presented the lineup card for Thursday's matinee to an emotional Joyce, who was working the game as scheduled as the home-plate umpire. The previous night, after watching the replays in the umpires room, Joyce offered a personal apology to Galarraga, which the Tigers' right-hander graciously accepted.

Now the buck is passed to commissioner Bud Selig, who joined the masses in acknowledging the game should have ended differently. Selig released a statement on Thursday that read, "Given last night's call and other recent events, I will examine our umpiring system, the expanded use of instant replay and all other related features."

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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