2010 FBS Positional Analysis: Tight Ends

NCAA Football Betting Lines

07/09/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The collegiate tight end has traditionally received little-to-no fanfare, except for the truly exceptional in that category. However, the position remains a quarterback's best friend. Whether it is serving as the ultimate relief valve in the middle of the field, or blocking both in passing and running situations, a talented tight end can create mismatches and make a real difference in any given game.

A look at the top FBS tight ends heading into 2010:

KYLE RUDOLPH, NOTRE DAME

The favorite to win the Mackey Award as 2010 commences, expect Rudolph to flourish in Brian Kelly's offensive system. The 6-6, 265-pounder is coming off a sophomore season in which he flashed great potential, grabbing 33 balls for 364 yards and three TDs. If he remains healthy, he has first-round NFL talent. A big target with wide receiver-type skills, Rudolph is poised for a big season, regardless of who earns the QB job in South Bend. With All-American talent in Michael Floyd on the outside and Rudolph at TE, it is hard to imagine whoever is under center struggling for an extended period of time with the Irish.

WESLYE SAUNDERS, SOUTH CAROLINA

This Gamecock certainly passes the eyeball test. A huge target at 6-6, 273 pounds, Saunders could also receive a first-round grade come draft time. His size and athleticism jump out at you. He hauled in 32 balls as a junior, for 353 yards and three TDs, but his modest numbers had a lot to do with inconsistency under center. With better play from the QB position this year, Saunders could put up bigger stats. South Carolina won't vie for an SEC crown in 2010, but playing in the top conference in the country should allow Saunders to showcase his talents week-in and week-out.

D.J. WILLIAMS, ARKANSAS

Williams had a huge sophomore season in 2008, leading the Razorbacks in receptions (61), receiving yards (723) and receiving TDs (3), en route to All- American accolades and a spot as the school's first-ever Mackey Award semifinalist. His numbers tailed off considerably in 2009, with just 32 receptions for 411 yards and three scores, but with steadier play under center from Heisman hopeful Ryan Mallett, Williams could return to his 2008 form this season. He has decent size (6-2, 250) and is a veteran presence who has seen it all. Arkansas is not an elite SEC squad, but Bobby Petrino has put his stamp on this offense and will undoubtedly utilize his assets to the fullest this year.

LANCE KENDRICKS, WISCONSIN

There is plenty of hype surrounding Wisconsin heading into 2010, as the Badgers are the front-runner for the Big Ten title in the eyes of many. Their talented tight end is one of the reasons for the optimism. At 6-4, 239 pounds, Kendricks is more of an oversized receiver than conventional tight end, and finished 2009 with 29 receptions, 356 yards and three TDs. In his final outing, he torched Miami for seven catches and 128 yards in the Champs Sports Bowl. Head coach Bret Bielema has all the pieces in place in 2010, including a devastating ground game and solid play under center, assets that can only help open things up for Kendricks and allow him to soar to the next level.

ORSON CHARLES, GEORGIA

The Bulldogs have an All-American on the outside in A.J. Green, which should help the development of the ultra-talented Charles, as there will likely be plenty of room for him to roam. The 6-3, 235-pounder isn't especially big for the position, but his talent is in catching the football and making plays after the catch. He showed flashes of brilliance as a freshman in 2009, earning Freshman All-American honors when he appeared in 12 games with three starts and finished the year with 23 receptions, for 374 yards and two TDs. The goal for Georgia is to return to elite status in the SEC, and if the Bulldogs are to attain that, expect Charles to have big numbers when all is said and done.

GEORGE BRYAN, NC STATE

Bryan emerged as the ACC's top tight end in 2009, earning First-Team honors after catching 40 balls, for 422 yards and six TDs. He may not get the publicity that other TEs around the nation get, but the 6-5, 265-pound senior has developed into one of the better players at the position. The Wolfpack are still trying to return to ACC prominence, but may be a year or two away, especially if talented QB Russell Wilson (a recent fourth-round selection of the MLB Colorado Rockies) decides to forgo the rest of his eligibility to concentrate on his baseball career. Still, regardless of who is under center, expect Bryan to see plenty of balls thrown his way.

JOE HALAHUNI, OREGON STATE

Mike Riley's Beavers are an offensive juggernaut, with playmakers at all the skill positions. That includes tight end, where Halahuni reigns supreme. He plays more of an "H" back for OSU, but really came on strong down the stretch in 2009, finishing the year with 35 receptions for 486 yards and three TDs, despite starting just two games. The 6-2, 252-pounder continues to improve and this could be the year he really bursts on the scene. With the talented Rodgers' brothers garnering most of the attention in Corvallis, Halahuni will have a great opportunity to exploit matchups in 2010.

BEN GUIDUGLI, CINCINNATI

Butch Jones takes over for the departed Brian Kelly and has the unenviable task of trying to hold onto the momentum gained by two straight Big East crowns. However, the cupboard isn't exactly bare at Cincinnati and the Bearcats will head into 2010 with a solid QB under center in Zach Collaros and Guidugli at the TE position. Despite being undersized at 6-1, 239 pounds, Guidugli was effective as a junior in 2009, grabbing 27 balls, for 364 yards and three TDs. The younger brother of former UC signal-calling star Gino Guidugli, Ben has steadily improved his numbers each year, and 2010 should be no different. A third conference crown may be too much to ask, but expect Guidugli to remain a key weapon in the Cincinnati arsenal.

KAVARIO MIDDLETON, WASHINGTON

The rebuilding process in the Pacific Northwest continues for head coach Steve Sarkisian, and there is some real talent, especially on the offensive side of the football, that has the Huskies fan base interested. All-American candidate Jake Locker is poised for a huge 2010 before taking his talents to the NFL and with targets like Jermaine Kearse and Middleton, big numbers are likely. The 6-5, 253-pound Middleton showed his potential as a sophomore, finishing 2009 with 26 receptions for 257 yards and three TDs. With Locker feeling more and more comfortable in the pocket, expect Middleton's numbers to increase significantly in 2010.

CHARLIE GANTT, MICHIGAN STATE

Unlike the aforementioned players on this list, Gantt is more of a "lunch- pail" type of tight end. The 6-5, 255-pound Spartan will do anything to contribute, and is a solid blocker who continues to improve as a receiver. Gantt earned All-Big Ten Honorable Mention in 2009, finishing the season with career-highs in receptions (22) and receiving yards (348). MSU finished 2009 just under .500, and if the Spartans fail to build on a six-win season, it won't be due to a lack of effort from Gantt.

OTHERS TO KEEP AN EYE ON: Luke Stocker (Tennessee), Mike McNeill (Nebraska), Anthony Miller (California), Kevin Koger (Michigan), Willie Jefferson (Baylor), Jordan Reed (Florida), Jeffrey Anderson (UAB), Kendrick Moeai (Utah).

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

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